Coin Press - Israel: Economy on the edge

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Israel: Economy on the edge

After two years of fighting in Gaza and growing international isolation, Israel’s economy is facing unprecedented strains. Once a regional growth engine, the country now grapples with ballooning war costs, surging consumer prices, labour shortages, crumbling public finances and a declining credit standing. The signs of distress are evident across households, businesses and government accounts.

War‑Related Damage and Fiscal Strain
The war in Gaza, which began after the October 7 2023 attacks, has inflicted both human and economic devastation. Gaza’s authorities estimate that more than 67 000 Palestinians have been killed and Israel reports that Hamas killed 1 200 people in the initial attack. Economic activity in Gaza and the West Bank has collapsed. The conflict has cost the Israeli economy about US$43 billion since October 2023 and has slowed GDP growth from high single‑digit rates to 0.9 % in 2024. Defence spending is expected to almost double compared with 2022, pushing the debt‑to‑GDP ratio from 61 % in 2023 to roughly 70 % in 2024 and swelling the budget deficit to 8.5 % of GDP.

Israel has financed wartime expenditure through borrowing. The state raised US$8 billion on international markets in March 2024 and US$5 billion in February 2025, relying partly on US military aid. However, analysts warn that war‑related labour shortages and the ongoing mobilisation of reservists are stalling growth: the central bank trimmed its 2025 growth estimate to 2.5 %, down from 3.3 %, and sees the economy expanding only if hostilities end. A former deputy governor estimated that failure to achieve a lasting ceasefire could push debt above 90 % of GDP by 2030, triggering credit downgrades.

Cost‑of‑Living Crisis and Tax Hikes
Consumers are feeling the pinch. Israel ranks among the developed world’s most expensive countries; its price levels are the fourth highest in the OECD. The Organisation for Economic Co‑operation and Development (OECD) attributes high prices to a mix of geographical constraints, steep tariffs on food imports, strict product‑market regulations and limited competition. Administrative red tape and complex planning rules restrict housing supply, while a vibrant high‑tech sector coexists with low‑productivity industries, creating large wage disparities. In 2025 the state comptroller warned that the cost of living was skyrocketing: prices for basic goods were 51 % higher than those in the European Union and 37 % above the OECD average, with three corporations controlling over 85 % of many food categories. These monopolistic structures enable retailers to raise prices during times of shortage.

At the start of 2025, Israelis faced further blows. The value‑added tax was raised from 17 % to 18 %, increasing the cost of nearly all goods. National Insurance contributions were increased by ₪1 000–2 000 per household, income tax brackets were frozen so that salaries do not keep pace with inflation and the surtax on high earners rose from 3 % to 5 %. Municipal property taxes can rise 5.2 %, with higher levies on newer buildings, while electricity prices climb 3.5 % and water charges 2 %. These measures are intended to narrow the fiscal gap caused by wartime expenditure but further squeeze households’ disposable income and risk fuelling social unrest.

High Cost of Living and Structural Problems
Israel’s cost‑of‑living problem is not new. Protests against soaring housing and food prices date back more than a decade, from the 2011 tent protests to the 2014 “Milky” boycott. Analysis by the OECD highlights deep structural causes. Israel’s distance from major trading partners and tense regional relations limit trade opportunities, while difficult border procedures, complex regulatory standards and tariffs on agricultural imports raise import costs. Limited competition and strict product‑market regulation slow productivity growth and prevent savings from being passed on to consumers. Housing is particularly unaffordable: administrative red tape restricts supply and planning obstacles make urban development sluggish.

The OECD therefore recommends sweeping reforms: remove trade barriers and bureaucratic hurdles to strengthen competition, establish a “one‑stop shop” for business licensing and adopt a “silence is consent” principle for issuing permits, simplify import licensing and lower tariffs on vegetables, fruit and dairy. Easing planning regulations, accelerating urban renewal and investing in public transport would expand housing supply and reduce costs. Without such measures, high prices will continue to erode purchasing power.

Labour Shortages, Inequality and the High‑Tech Exodus
Labour markets have been disrupted on multiple fronts. The war caused schools and services to close and led to the suspension of Palestinian work permits, halving the share of non‑Israeli labour in total employment and cutting investment by 26 % in late 2023. Agriculture and construction struggled as Palestinian and foreign workers were barred, while the call‑up of reservists removed tens of thousands of Israelis from civilian jobs. The central bank warns that the economy will not recover fully until these supply constraints ease.

Meanwhile, inequality has deepened. Before the war, Israel’s GDP per capita was 14 times higher than that of Gaza and the West Bank. In Gaza, GDP has shrunk by 86 % and multi‑dimensional poverty now afflicts 98 % of residents. Within Israel, labour‑force participation is low among ultra‑Orthodox men and Arab women, hindering growth. The OECD urges the government to end subsidies for yeshiva students, condition childcare support on fathers’ employment and equalise funding for Arab schools.

Israel’s high‑tech industry, which accounts for about a fifth of GDP, more than half of exports and roughly a quarter of tax revenue, is facing its own crisis. In the nine months after the October 2023 attacks, 8 300 high‑tech employees left the country for year‑long relocations. High‑tech employment declined by 5 000 jobs in 2024, the first contraction in at least a decade. The Israel Innovation Authority warns that the exodus reflects uncertainty about the war’s duration, a lack of funding and the call‑up of reservists. It calls for investment in education and skills, tax incentives for returning professionals and policies to stabilise the business environment. Without such measures, a core driver of growth and tax revenue may erode.

Housing Market Slump
The real estate sector, once a key wealth store for Israeli households, has also stalled. In June 2025, housing sales fell to the lowest level in more than two decades; only 5 844 units were sold, a 29 % drop from a year earlier, and sales of new‑build homes collapsed by 46 %. These figures mark the lowest June sales since the early 2000s. The Ministry of Finance attributed the slump to war‑related uncertainty and tighter financing rules. The national housing price index declined by 1.3 % over four months, with Tel Aviv seeing a 4.2 % drop. Some Israelis are turning to real estate abroad, including Georgia, to protect wealth. Analysts warn that the market’s collapse reflects a broader decline in consumer confidence and investment.

International Isolation and Credit Downgrades
Israel’s global standing has deteriorated. The war’s humanitarian toll has hardened attitudes in the European Union, Israel’s largest trading partner. Several EU states have frozen arms exports, and some have moved to ban imports from Israeli settlements. In September 2025 the European Commission proposed suspending trade benefits covering 37 % of Israeli exports, amounting to roughly €42.6 billion in annual trade. The plan, which would end preferential tariffs and impose sanctions on Israeli ministers, marks Brussels’ strongest action yet against Israel. Such measures threaten to curb exports, investment and access to technology.

Credit rating agencies have responded by lowering Israel’s sovereign rating and warning of further downgrades. In February 2024 Moody’s cut the rating two notches from A2 to Baa1 and maintained a negative outlook. In early 2025, Fitch affirmed an “A” rating but retained a negative outlook, citing rising public debt, domestic political strains and the uncertain trajectory of the Gaza war. Fitch noted that renewed hostilities could last months, reducing reserves mobilised but still straining the economy. All three major agencies cut Israel’s score in 2024 due to ballooning defence and civilian costs, signalling that borrowing costs could rise and limiting fiscal flexibility.

The Bank of Israel, which has kept its benchmark interest rate at 4.5 % for 14 consecutive meetings, warns that international isolation will harm trade and foreign investment. Governor Amir Yaron cautions that prolonged conflict could lower growth, widen the budget deficit and keep inflation high. Despite pressure from industry to cut rates, the central bank stresses that supply constraints, war‑driven budgets and a strong shekel justify caution. Inflation peaked at 3.8 % in January 2025 but moderated to 2.5 % in September, within the target range.

Prospects and Necessary Reforms
Looking ahead, forecasts hinge on peace. The OECD projects that if fighting eases, Israel’s economy could grow 3.4 % in 2025 and 5.5 % in 2026. A ceasefire allowing reservists to return to work could lift growth to 3.6 % in 2026, keeping debt below 70 % of GDP. However, the Bank of Israel’s staff anticipates only 2.5 % growth in 2025 and inflation around 3 %, with interest rates declining modestly in 2026. The 2025 budget aims to narrow the deficit to 4.3 %, but economists expect it could still reach 5 %.

To avert lasting damage, structural reforms are essential. The OECD urges the government to relax product‑market regulations, reduce trade barriers and red tape, improve infrastructure and invest in education and labour‑market participation for ultra‑Orthodox and Arab citizens. It calls for ending subsidies that discourage work, tying childcare support to parental employment, and equalising funding for Arab schools. Investment in artificial intelligence and advanced skills is needed to sustain the high‑tech sector, which the innovation authority says must broaden its talent pool. The cost‑of‑living crisis requires the dismantling of monopolies, lowering tariffs on food imports and streamlining planning regulations.

Conclusion
Israel’s economy is in serious trouble. Years of war have drained public finances, weakened growth and raised debt to unprecedented levels. Households face higher taxes, surging utility bills and some of the world’s highest consumer prices. Labour shortages, inequality and the exodus of high‑tech talent threaten long‑term competitiveness, while credit downgrades and EU trade sanctions signal growing international isolation. Without a durable peace and a bold reform agenda—spanning trade liberalisation, regulatory simplification, education and competition policy—the country risks prolonged stagnation and social unrest. The coming months will determine whether Israel can arrest its economic decline or whether the cracks widen into a full‑blown crisis.

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Stargate project, Trump and the AI war...

In a dramatic return to the global political stage, former President Donald J. Trump, as the current 47th President of the United States of America, has unveiled his latest initiative, the so-called ‘Stargate Project,’ in a bid to cement the United States’ dominance in artificial intelligence and outpace China’s meteoric rise in the field. The newly announced programme, cloaked in patriotic rhetoric and ambitious targets, is already stirring intense debate over the future of technological competition between the world’s two largest economies.According to preliminary statements from Trump’s team, the Stargate Project will consolidate the efforts of leading American tech conglomerates, defence contractors, and research universities under a centralised framework. The former president, who has long championed American exceptionalism, claims this approach will provide the United States with a decisive advantage, enabling rapid breakthroughs in cutting-edge AI applications ranging from military strategy to commercial innovation.“America must remain the global leader in technology—no ifs, no buts,” Trump declared at a recent press conference. “China has been trying to surpass us in AI, but with this new project, we will make sure the future remains ours.”Details regarding funding and governance remain scarce, but early indications suggest the initiative will rely heavily on public-private partnerships, tax incentives for research and development, and collaboration with high-profile venture capital firms. Skeptics, however, warn that the endeavour could fan the flames of an increasingly militarised AI race, raising ethical concerns about surveillance, automation of warfare, and data privacy. Critics also question whether the initiative can deliver on its lofty promises, especially in the face of existing economic and geopolitical pressures.Yet for its supporters, the Stargate Project serves as a rallying cry for renewed American leadership and an antidote to worries over China’s technological ascendancy. Proponents argue that accelerating AI research is paramount if the United States wishes to preserve not just military supremacy, but also the economic and cultural influence that has typified its global role for decades.Whether this bold project will succeed—or if it will devolve into a symbolic gesture—remains to be seen. What is certain, however, is that the Stargate Project has already reignited debate about how best to safeguard America’s strategic future and maintain the balance of power in the fast-evolving arena of artificial intelligence.

China’s cartel lifeline

China is not keeping Mexico’s drug cartels alive through a formal alliance, a military pact or an openly declared policy. The reality is more diffuse and, in operational terms, more useful. China-linked chemical suppliers, commercial intermediaries and underground banking networks have become crucial parts of the infrastructure that allows Mexican criminal organisations to manufacture synthetic drugs at scale, move them towards the United States and recycle the proceeds with remarkable speed. The relationship is not a single organisation. It is a market in which every participant solves a problem for somebody else.That distinction matters. There is no publicly demonstrated command structure in which Beijing directs the Sinaloa Cartel or the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generación. Nor is every Chinese chemical company, exporter, student, business owner or currency broker involved in crime. Yet the available evidence shows that actors based in China or connected to Chinese commercial and underground banking systems have become indispensable enablers of Mexico’s synthetic-drug economy. They supply ingredients, reduce financial friction and provide the cartels with a global capacity that Mexican organisations could not reproduce as cheaply or efficiently on their own. The phrase saving the cartels is therefore provocative, but not meaningless. It describes an economic function rather than a political alliance.An industrial supply chain, not a secret pactThe modern fentanyl trade is less dependent on farmland than the heroin and cocaine businesses that preceded it. Synthetic drugs can be produced close to their final market, their potency makes transport exceptionally profitable, and their chemistry can be adjusted when a particular substance is banned. That has changed the balance of power inside organised crime. Access to chemicals, expertise, equipment and finance now matters as much as control over fields or remote trafficking corridors. When China placed fentanyl-related substances under class-wide control in 2019, the trade did not disappear. It changed form. Direct exports of finished fentanyl became more difficult, while Mexican organisations expanded their own synthesis using imported precursor and pre-precursor chemicals. The business moved one step upstream into the vast international chemical market, where many compounds have legitimate industrial or pharmaceutical uses and where criminal diversion can be concealed behind intermediaries, false descriptions, altered customs codes and shipments routed through third countries.Mexican brokers and cartel-linked procurement specialists search for suppliers, negotiate prices and arrange delivery through Pacific ports, air cargo, courier services and parcel networks. Some chemicals enter Mexico directly. Others pass through the United States or additional transit jurisdictions before reaching clandestine laboratories. Suppliers can switch to closely related compounds when regulators schedule a specific substance, leaving enforcement agencies trapped in a recurring race between chemical innovation and legal control. Not every company in the chain necessarily knows the ultimate destination or intended use of a shipment. That ambiguity is one reason the system is resilient. At the same time, recent prosecutions have described sellers who allegedly marketed chemicals for narcotics production, discussed concealment methods, accepted digital payments and tailored products to the requirements of traffickers. The supply chain ranges from wilful criminal partnership to negligent compliance and the exploitation of ordinary trade.Once the chemicals arrive, Mexican groups provide the violent and logistical layer. They operate laboratories, recruit chemists, press counterfeit tablets, move bulk powder and use established smuggling networks to cross the US border. The Sinaloa Cartel and CJNG remain the most important organisations in this market, although splinter groups, regional allies and independent brokers increasingly participate. The result is not a simple China-to-Mexico pipeline, but an adaptive commercial web.The financial machine behind the narcotics tradeChemicals are only half of the story. A cartel that cannot move, convert and reinvest its earnings is a cartel that cannot survive. This is where Chinese underground banking and money-laundering networks have become especially valuable. Mexican organisations accumulate enormous quantities of dollars from retail and wholesale drug sales in the United States. Physically moving that cash across the border is expensive and vulnerable to seizure. Conventional bank transfers create records and require explanations. Traditional laundering networks charge substantial fees because they assume serious legal and operational risk.At the same time, many Chinese citizens and businesses seek access to dollars outside China, whether to buy property, pay tuition, acquire luxury goods or move wealth beyond the country’s strict foreign-exchange controls. Most of those customers are not drug traffickers. Their demand for foreign currency nevertheless creates a pool of buyers that professional laundering networks can exploit. The broker matches the two sides. Cartel dollars collected in the United States are delivered to a buyer, deposited through a network of accounts or used to purchase goods. An equivalent amount of renminbi is then paid inside China through a separate domestic transaction. The cartel or its representative receives value in Mexico through pesos, commercial payments, goods, property or accounts controlled by front companies. The money does not need to travel from the United States to China and back through a conventional international transfer. Value moves, while the original currency often remains within the country where it was collected.This is the logic of the mirror transaction. It is fast, difficult to reconstruct and capable of serving two clients at once. The cartel disposes of incriminating cash. The Chinese customer acquires foreign spending power. The broker earns fees and may profit again through trade, exchange-rate spreads or the resale of goods.The laundering can then be layered through electronics, designer products, vehicles, property, casinos, restaurants, import-export companies, cashier’s cheques, peer-to-peer payments, shell businesses, stablecoins and other digital assets. Encrypted messaging allows couriers and brokers to verify cash pickups with serial numbers or photographs while revealing little about the wider network. Trade-based laundering is particularly effective because a legitimate shipment can disguise an illicit transfer of value through false invoices, overpricing, underpricing or transactions between related companies.Between 2020 and 2024, 137,153 suspicious activity reports covered approximately 312 billion dollars in activity potentially linked to Chinese money-laundering networks. That figure must not be mistaken for 312 billion dollars of proven cartel revenue. Suspicious activity reports may overlap, include attempted transfers and capture lawful as well as unlawful transactions. Even with that essential caveat, the scale shows how deeply these networks can touch banks, money-service businesses, property markets, retail commerce and digital payment systems.Recent cases expose the convergenceEvents during 2026 have made the structure increasingly visible. In May, two Chinese nationals were charged with participating in a transnational laundering organisation that allegedly served the Sinaloa Cartel and CJNG. The alleged methods included mirror transfers, foreign bank accounts, encrypted communications, serial-number verification and trade-based laundering across the United States, Mexico, Latin America and China. In another case announced in March, six Chinese nationals and two pharmaceutical companies were charged in conspiracies involving chemical agents used to manufacture or adulterate fentanyl. Three defendants were also accused of attempting to provide material support to a person they believed represented the Gulf Cartel. The allegations illustrated how chemical sales, payment processing and cartel logistics can merge within the same commercial relationship.In June, a Honduras-based Chinese national pleaded guilty to drug trafficking, laundering and providing support to CJNG. The network had coordinated the laundering of more than 22 million dollars in proceeds from cocaine and fentanyl sales and used cryptocurrency, trade-based methods and encrypted communications. It had also participated in moving more than 450 kilograms of cocaine. Each case has its own legal facts, and charges remain allegations until proven. Taken together, however, the cases reveal a mature service economy. Cartels are no longer merely buying chemicals from distant factories and hiring unrelated launderers afterwards. They can draw on overlapping networks that arrange procurement, transport, payment, currency conversion, concealment and reinvestment.That integration reduces costs and makes disruption harder. Arresting a cartel lieutenant may remove one customer, but it does not eliminate the broker. Seizing one chemical shipment may delay a laboratory, but it does not destroy the supplier network. Closing one account often causes the money to migrate to another bank, another trade corridor or another digital asset.Beijing’s responsibility is real, but it is not simpleThe evidence does not justify treating every China-linked actor as an agent of the Chinese state. It does, however, raise serious questions about enforcement, regulatory incentives and the degree of political priority assigned to the problem. China possesses one of the world’s largest chemical and pharmaceutical manufacturing sectors. Its scale is a legitimate economic strength, but it also creates an enormous monitoring challenge. Small producers, trading companies, online sellers and freight intermediaries can be difficult to supervise, especially when the products are dual-use chemicals rather than finished narcotics. Criminal vendors can change company names, websites, payment channels and export descriptions faster than traditional investigations can proceed.Beijing has taken meaningful steps. It placed fentanyl-related substances under broad control, has prosecuted selected offenders and has participated in limited joint operations. In May 2026, China added three more chemicals to its controlled precursor list for exports to the United States, Canada and Mexico, while warning businesses about eight additional substances that could be used to manufacture synthetic drugs. A joint Chinese and US investigation also led to five arrests and drug seizures. Those actions demonstrate that cooperation is possible. They also expose the central weakness of molecule-by-molecule regulation. Once one chemical is controlled, traffickers can turn to a pre-precursor, a substitute compound or a different synthesis route. Effective enforcement therefore requires regulation of chemical families, rigorous customer verification, scrutiny of suspicious export patterns and rapid exchange of intelligence with destination countries.China argues that the fentanyl crisis is fundamentally an American problem driven by domestic demand and that Washington uses the issue as a geopolitical weapon. The first part contains an important truth. Without a vast consumer market in the United States, there would be no comparable revenue stream for the cartels. Yet demand does not absolve suppliers, brokers or governments from acting against criminal diversion. The crisis is simultaneously American in consumption, Mexican in large-scale production and transnational in chemistry and finance.Mexico is the manufacturing hub and the battlefieldMexico is not a passive victim of a foreign scheme. Its cartels choose to buy the chemicals, operate the laboratories, corrupt officials, intimidate communities and smuggle the finished drugs. They have converted geographic proximity to the United States into a decisive commercial advantage and have used decades of experience in cocaine, heroin and methamphetamine trafficking to build a synthetic-drug industry of global reach.The Mexican government has intensified seizures, laboratory raids, border deployments and transfers of major cartel figures to US custody. These actions have disrupted individual organisations and demonstrated a greater willingness to confront high-value targets. Yet the underlying business model has proved highly adaptable. Leadership losses can trigger fragmentation, succession wars and temporary chaos without eliminating the market for drugs, laundering or protection. Ports remain a critical vulnerability. The volume of legitimate trade makes comprehensive inspection impossible, while corruption, intimidation and falsified documentation can help suspicious cargo pass through. Local police forces and prosecutors often face far greater resources and firepower on the criminal side. National institutions may conduct spectacular operations, but sustained control requires reliable customs systems, protected investigators, independent courts and a financial intelligence structure capable of following money through legitimate businesses.Mexico’s insistence on sovereignty is understandable, especially when US officials speak of unilateral action. But sovereignty cannot become a shield against verifiable evidence or a substitute for institutional reform. Equally, Washington cannot treat Mexico merely as a source of danger while ignoring the American market that generates the profit and the financial channels through which much of that profit circulates.Why the cartels are being savedChina-linked networks save Mexican cartels in three practical ways. First, they preserve production by supplying an evolving menu of chemicals and equipment when specific substances are banned. Secondly, they make laundering cheaper and safer by matching drug dollars with demand for foreign currency and goods among Chinese customers. Thirdly, they internationalise cartel finance, allowing proceeds to be converted into property, trade, digital assets and legitimate-looking business revenue across several jurisdictions.The word saving should not be confused with charity or ideology. These are commercial relationships. Chemical suppliers want sales. Money brokers want fees. Chinese clients want access to overseas currency. Mexican cartels want inputs and clean value. Each party can participate without understanding the entire structure, and that fragmentation protects the system from collapse. Yet the phrase can also mislead. China is not the sole cause of cartel power. Mexico’s corruption and impunity, US drug demand, weaknesses in global trade controls, gaps in financial supervision and the extraordinary profitability of synthetic narcotics all sustain the same market. Removing one Chinese supplier would not end it. Reducing the availability of China-linked chemicals and laundering services across the system would, however, make cartel operations slower, more expensive and more vulnerable.What could actually break the chainA serious strategy must target the network rather than its nationality. Chemical producers should be required to verify customers, end users and unusual shipping routes. Export controls should cover families of dangerous compounds and be updated rapidly as synthesis methods change. Online platforms should be compelled to remove sellers that advertise concealment or narcotics applications. Ports need risk-based screening built on trade data, beneficial ownership records and intelligence about brokers, not merely random container searches.Financial enforcement must look beyond large international transfers. The most revealing signals may be repeated cash deposits, unexplained purchases of electronics, rapid credit-card repayments, property acquired through third parties, companies trading far beyond their apparent capacity and stablecoin flows that do not fit a customer’s profile. Banks, payment companies, casinos, estate agents, customs services and digital-asset platforms need to see themselves as parts of the same defensive system. Targeted sanctions and prosecutions can isolate the brokers who connect otherwise separate criminal markets. They are likely to be more effective than broad tariffs, which punish legitimate trade and can be absorbed or circumvented without identifying a single illicit shipment. Mutual legal assistance between China, Mexico and the United States must become faster, more routine and less dependent on the wider political climate.Enforcement alone will not resolve the crisis. The United States must continue reducing overdose deaths through treatment, prevention, naloxone access and a credible strategy for lowering demand. Mexico must strengthen institutions that protect ports, courts and local government from criminal capture. China must police chemical exporters and underground banking with the same seriousness it applies to threats it regards as central to domestic stability.The deepest danger is the belief that the fentanyl economy is a straight line from a Chinese factory to a Mexican laboratory and then across the US border. It is a web of legal commerce, criminal brokerage, digital finance, corrupt facilitation and consumer demand. That is why it survives arrests, sanctions and record seizures. China is not single-handedly keeping Mexico’s cartels alive. But China-linked chemical and financial networks have become one of the principal systems that allow them to adapt, recover and expand. Breaking that relationship would not end organised crime. It would remove one of its most efficient engines.