Very strong El Niño forecast to peak during southern African summer
-
S.African activists push back on data centre rush
-
Billionaire Ambani's Jio jumps 21% in market debut after record India IPO
-
Billionaire Ambani's Jio to debut after record India IPO
-
Sri Lanka's Tamil farmers fight to reclaim land after civil war
-
UK set for cautious budget as borrowing costs climb
-
'They don't care about us': Trump food aid cuts leave Americans struggling and angry
-
US Fed expected to hold rates steady ahead of key midterm elections
-
Palestinian activist Khalil returns to Columbia after US detention
-
AI chip giant SK hynix says quarterly operating profit soars 630%
-
Youths testify about 'despair' in unprecedented Canadian climate trial
-
Charles tackles thorny legacy of slavery on Caribbean trip
-
Storied Paris department store seeks bankruptcy protection
-
UN nuclear watchdog chief urges Iran to grant access
-
Boeing shares tumble after it releases cautious growth forecast
-
Boeing releases cautious growth plan as shares fall sharply
-
Boeing reports smaller loss as it aims for stable output growth
-
Tech firms gain on Anthropic IPO optimism; HSBC slumps in London
-
Dangote, Nigeria's oil tycoon rewriting Africa's story
-
Tech firms track Wall St rally on mixed day for stock markets
-
Kane says Ballon d'Or win 'feels like a dream' as tributes pour in
-
HSBC profit jumps on higher rates, lower costs
-
Mercedes-Benz cuts 2026 profit outlook on tough China market
-
Reparations calls follow Charles on tough Caribbean trip
-
Wall Street faces earnings and Fed tests after turbulent technology-led week
-
China brands drop Mbappe for 'offending national sentiments'
-
Delhi grants minimum monthly pay and DA to about 4,000 MCD health workers
-
Critical coal inventories affect nearly half of India’s domestic power plants
-
FCNR(B) deposit drive puts sharper margin pressure on private banks
-
Gold ETF flows turn negative after 13 weeks as bullion loses 4%
Very strong El Niño forecast to peak during southern African summer
A very strong El Niño is expected to peak between October 2026 and January 2027, although experts say its precise effects across southern Africa remain uncertain.
Southern Africa is approaching an austral summer influenced by a forecast very strong El Niño that developed earlier than usual and is expected to peak between October 2026 and January 2027.
The ENSO Reference Group, comprising experts from South African research institutions and agencies, maintained the forecast in its August update. University of Pretoria modelling places the peak within the four-month period, while observations show unusually early warming in the Niño 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific and record global average sea-surface temperatures.
El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a recurring tropical Pacific pattern that affects weather worldwide. The group said every event interacts differently with other oceanic and atmospheric processes, which can strengthen or reduce local effects, leaving considerable uncertainty about the consequences of the 2026 event.
A detailed assessment will be presented at the 2026-2027 El Niño summit on September 10. The group plans to examine the event’s development and expected impact, as well as extreme weather early and late in the southern African winter, a dry July in the winter-rainfall region and recent extreme summer conditions in the northern hemisphere.
U.Ndiaye--CPN
