Coin Press - Germany doesn't want any more migrants?

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Germany doesn't want any more migrants?

Germany, once a beacon of openness during the 2015 migrant crisis when it welcomed over a million refugees, appears to be undergoing a profound shift in its stance on immigration. Under the leadership of Friedrich Merz, the newly elected chancellor from the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), the country is tightening its borders and rethinking its reliance on foreign labour. This pivot, driven by economic pressures, security concerns, and a resurgent far-right, raises questions about the future of a nation long defined by its post-war commitment to multiculturalism and economic pragmatism.

A Legacy of Openness Under Strain:
Germany’s immigration policy has historically been shaped by necessity and morality. After World War II, the "Wirtschaftswunder—the economic miracle—relied" on "Gastarbeiter" (guest workers) from Turkey and southern Europe to rebuild the nation. In 2015, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s decision to open borders to Syrian and other refugees was both a humanitarian gesture and a bid to bolster an ageing workforce. By 2020, immigrants and their descendants comprised 26% of Germany’s 83 million residents, per the Federal Statistical Office, contributing significantly to sectors like manufacturing and healthcare.

Yet, the mood has soured. The CDU’s victory in the 23 February 2025 federal election, securing 28.5% of the vote, came amid a surge for the anti-immigrant Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which captured 20%. Merz, forming a coalition with the Social Democratic Party (SPD), has vowed to address what he calls “uncontrolled inflows,” signalling a departure from Merkel’s legacy.

Economic Pragmatism Meets Saturation:
Germany’s economy, Europe’s largest, has long depended on immigrants to fill labour gaps. In 2024, the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) estimated a shortage of 400,000 skilled workers, particularly in engineering and nursing. The birth rate, at 1.5 children per woman, remains well below replacement level, amplifying the need for foreign talent. So why the reversal?

Uneducated immigrants are a burden on the German welfare system:
Analysts point to a saturation point. Unemployment, though low at 5.5% in 2024, masks regional disparities and a growing perception that immigrants strain welfare systems. The influx of 200,000 Ukrainian refugees since 2022, while largely welcomed, has stretched housing and social services, with cities like Berlin reporting a 20% rise in rents over two years. Merz has argued that Germany must “prioritise integration over importation,” citing a 2024 Interior Ministry report that 30% of recent arrivals remain jobless after five years—a statistic seized upon by critics of open borders.

Security and the Far-Right Shadow - Too many Migaten are simply criminal:
Security concerns have further fuelled the shift. High-profile incidents, such as the December 2024 knife attack in Mannheim by an Afghan asylum seeker, which left three dead, have reignited debates about vetting and deportation. The AfD, capitalising on such events, has pushed a narrative of “immigrant crime,” despite data showing that foreign nationals’ offence rates (excluding immigration violations) align with those of native Germans. Merz, while distancing himself from the AfD’s rhetoric, has pledged tougher asylum rules and faster removals of rejected applicants, a nod to public unease.

The far-right’s electoral gains—126 projected Bundestag seats—have pressured mainstream parties to act. Posts on X reflect a polarised populace: some decry “a betrayal of German values,” while others cheer “a return to sovereignty.” Merz’s coalition, balancing the SPD’s pro-immigration leanings, must navigate this divide.

Policy Shifts and Global Implications:
Concrete measures are emerging. In February 2025, Merz announced plans to cap asylum applications at 100,000 annually—down from 300,000 in 2023—and expand “safe third country” agreements, allowing deportations to nations like Turkey. The Skilled Immigration Act, liberalised in 2023 to attract professionals, faces scrutiny, with proposals to raise income thresholds and tighten language requirements. Meanwhile, the EU’s New Pact on Migration, which Germany endorsed in 2024, is under review as Berlin seeks stricter external border controls.

Globally, this retrenchment could dim Germany’s image as a progressive leader. Its ageing population—projected to shrink to 79 million by 2050 without immigration—poses a long-term economic risk. The Confederation of German Employers (BDA) warned in January 2025 that curtailing inflows could cost 1% of GDP growth annually by 2030. Yet, political expediency seems to trump such forecasts for now.

A Nation at a Crossroads:
Germany’s turn from immigration reflects a confluence of pressures: economic limits, security fears, and a populist tide. It does not signal an absolute rejection—labour shortages ensure some openness persists—but a recalibration towards control and selectivity. For Merz, the challenge is twofold: assuaging a restive electorate while preserving the economic engine that immigrants have long fuelled. Whether this balancing act succeeds will shape not just Germany’s future, but Europe’s.

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Stargate project, Trump and the AI war...

In a dramatic return to the global political stage, former President Donald J. Trump, as the current 47th President of the United States of America, has unveiled his latest initiative, the so-called ‘Stargate Project,’ in a bid to cement the United States’ dominance in artificial intelligence and outpace China’s meteoric rise in the field. The newly announced programme, cloaked in patriotic rhetoric and ambitious targets, is already stirring intense debate over the future of technological competition between the world’s two largest economies.According to preliminary statements from Trump’s team, the Stargate Project will consolidate the efforts of leading American tech conglomerates, defence contractors, and research universities under a centralised framework. The former president, who has long championed American exceptionalism, claims this approach will provide the United States with a decisive advantage, enabling rapid breakthroughs in cutting-edge AI applications ranging from military strategy to commercial innovation.“America must remain the global leader in technology—no ifs, no buts,” Trump declared at a recent press conference. “China has been trying to surpass us in AI, but with this new project, we will make sure the future remains ours.”Details regarding funding and governance remain scarce, but early indications suggest the initiative will rely heavily on public-private partnerships, tax incentives for research and development, and collaboration with high-profile venture capital firms. Skeptics, however, warn that the endeavour could fan the flames of an increasingly militarised AI race, raising ethical concerns about surveillance, automation of warfare, and data privacy. Critics also question whether the initiative can deliver on its lofty promises, especially in the face of existing economic and geopolitical pressures.Yet for its supporters, the Stargate Project serves as a rallying cry for renewed American leadership and an antidote to worries over China’s technological ascendancy. Proponents argue that accelerating AI research is paramount if the United States wishes to preserve not just military supremacy, but also the economic and cultural influence that has typified its global role for decades.Whether this bold project will succeed—or if it will devolve into a symbolic gesture—remains to be seen. What is certain, however, is that the Stargate Project has already reignited debate about how best to safeguard America’s strategic future and maintain the balance of power in the fast-evolving arena of artificial intelligence.

Europe’s arms money maze

Europe’s rearmament has acquired an uncomfortable companion: uncertainty about what the money actually buys. In Germany, an argument over defence-related borrowing has raised questions about whether exceptional debt is producing genuinely additional expenditure. In Estonia, unreliable inventory records and disputed ammunition contracts have brought ministerial accountability into the foreground. These are different problems, but they meet at the same point: a larger budget is not a reliable measure of a stronger defence.The contention that nobody knows what is happening to Europe’s weapons money goes too far. Budgets are published, procurement bodies operate and auditors are identifying failures. Nor do these cases establish that funds have disappeared into Russian hands or that the Kremlin engineered the difficulties. The more defensible conclusion is also more useful: Europe cannot judge rearmament by the volume of money announced. It must establish what has been purchased, accepted and made ready for use.That distinction matters strategically. An adversary need not steal the money to benefit from delays, unusable equipment or a loss of confidence in the governments spending it.What the €800 billion actually meansThe scale of the spending is substantial. Combined defence expenditure across the European Union reached €418 billion in 2025, with €454 billion estimated for 2026. Those annual totals should not be confused with the much larger, multi-year headline attached to the EU’s rearmament financing plan. The widely cited €800 billion is potential financing capacity, not a single fund already transferred to arms manufacturers. Its main components are approximately €650 billion in possible additional national expenditure enabled by fiscal flexibility over four years, and €150 billion in loans through the Security Action for Europe instrument, known as SAFE. The loans must be repaid; the additional national spending depends on governments choosing to use the available room.These distinctions are indispensable to any honest assessment. Permission to borrow is not an order placed with a factory. An order is not a completed delivery. Equipment delivered to a warehouse is not necessarily equipment that troops can operate, maintain and replenish. Treating all these stages as interchangeable allows governments to claim progress before the military benefit exists.It also creates a temptation to add together figures that describe different periods or overlapping flows of money. A credible account of rearmament should distinguish financing arrangements from annual expenditure, and both from verified outputs. Otherwise, the public is left comparing impressive totals whose practical meaning is unclear.Germany’s argument over additional spendingOn 10 September, the Ifo Institute challenged the use of Germany’s defence-related borrowing exemption. It calculated an €11 billion gap between additional borrowing and the year-on-year increase in the relevant expenditure. Ifo’s argument was that 38.5 per cent of the additional debt had not produced additional defence and security spending, instead freeing room for other purposes in the ordinary budget. The Finance Ministry rejected the comparison as legally and methodologically flawed. The exemption concerns qualifying expenditure above one per cent of gross domestic product, rather than an increase over the previous year. Ifo, for its part, said its analysis concerned additional spending, not constitutionality.This is not evidence that €11 billion was stolen. It is a dispute over the relationship between an exceptional borrowing mechanism and the political expectation attached to it. The difference is important: an arrangement can comply with its legal design while delivering less additional expenditure than citizens understand the announcement to promise.The practical question is whether new borrowing expands defence capacity or changes the way existing commitments are financed. Those outcomes can coexist within the same budget. Refinancing an established obligation may be lawful and fiscally useful, but it should not be presented as though an equivalent amount of new military capability has been purchased. Germany’s dispute therefore points to a straightforward transparency test. Governments should identify the expenditure that would have occurred anyway, the genuinely additional commitments and the delivery milestones attached to them. Without that comparison, the argument risks becoming a contest between accounting definitions while the central question—what the armed forces actually gain—remains unanswered.Estonia’s warning from the accountsIn Estonia, the problems are more immediate. Defence Minister Hanno Pevkur announced on 2 September that he would step down, accepting political responsibility for failures exposed in defence administration and procurement. His announcement did not amount to an admission of personal corruption.The National Audit Office issued a qualified opinion concerning defence inventories valued at approximately €1.2 billion because their quantities, composition and valuation could not be established reliably. It also questioned an unexplained retrospective adjustment of €99.7 million to the previous year’s inventory figures. That does not mean €1.2 billion of weapons has vanished. An unreliable balance is not the same thing as a proven loss. It means the records are insufficiently dependable to establish what the balance represents—a serious weakness in any organisation, and particularly consequential in one responsible for military readiness.Inadequate records can obstruct decisions long before a final financial loss is demonstrated. Commanders and purchasing authorities need to distinguish usable stock from equipment awaiting inspection, repair or replacement. If those categories are unclear, another procurement decision may rest on a mistaken understanding of what is already available.Auditing is therefore more than an exercise in retrospective blame. A trustworthy inventory helps determine what must be bought next, how urgently it is needed and whether previous purchases fulfilled their purpose. Poor accounting can undermine operational planning even where no theft is established.Paid for is not the same as usableEstonia’s ammunition procurement for Ukraine illustrates a second difficulty. The audit identified disputed advance payments and warned of a potential exposure to the state budget of around €70 million. That figure describes a risk, not a final, adjudicated loss.The controversy includes contracts involving the Italian company Datasel. Pevkur described ammunition delivered under the disputed arrangements as incomplete and of insufficient quality, rather than simply non-existent. Datasel disputes the criticism and has said that goods delivered and invoiced were worth approximately €58 million against about €59 million in advances. The company’s account is a contested position, not a judicial finding.The disagreement exposes a distinction that matters beyond this particular supplier. A payment record, an invoice, the physical presence of goods and acceptance of those goods for their intended use answer different questions. A supplier may point to shipments while a purchasing authority disputes whether the contractual requirement has been met. The existence of equipment does not, by itself, resolve an argument over quality or completeness.For Ukraine, the decisive consideration is usable military support. For the public authorities financing it, the additional questions are whether payment conditions were appropriate, inspections were timely and contractual protections can recover money when performance is disputed. Those questions should be settled through evidence and the relevant proceedings, not through premature declarations of guilt.The procurement lesson is nonetheless clear. Emergency purchasing needs traceable contracts, independently verified acceptance and a dependable record linking each payment to performance. Urgency may justify faster decisions. It cannot make the distinction between an invoice and a functioning delivery disappear.An oversight system split across institutionsEurope’s defence financing does not sit within a single system of scrutiny. National budgets, EU programmes, loans and off-budget arrangements have different institutional responsibilities. The European Court of Auditors’ September review described complex governance and uneven oversight arrangements, rather than a continent-wide absence of auditing.SAFE falls within the European Court of Auditors’ remit. The European Peace Facility, outside the ordinary EU budget, has its own College of Auditors. National defence expenditure is scrutinised through national institutions. The distinction is between different mandates, not between money that is automatically checked and money that is automatically unaccountable. The difficulty arises at the joins. A public explanation may follow the announcement of a financing package, while a procurement body follows the contract and an operational authority follows the equipment. Unless those accounts can be reconciled, citizens and legislators may struggle to establish the complete journey from political promise to accepted delivery.Secrecy complicates that task, but it need not prevent it. Publishing ammunition locations or technical vulnerabilities would be irresponsible. Giving properly authorised auditors access to contracts, inspections and payment records is a different matter. The need to protect operational information should not become a general excuse for withholding financial evidence.Nor should procurement integrity be treated as a rival to speed. Clearly assigned responsibility, verifiable milestones and early checks can prevent disputes from developing into expensive attempts to recover money after the event. The relevant choice is between controls that work during procurement and explanations demanded after something has gone wrong.Where Putin could benefitThese failures do not establish that Vladimir Putin has obtained everything he wanted. A Europe that turns rising expenditure into effective forces would represent a very different outcome. There is also no demonstrated Russian role in the particular German budget dispute or the Estonian accounting and contractual problems described here.The potential advantage for Moscow is indirect. Delayed or disputed deliveries can leave the intended recipient weaker than the expenditure suggests. Confusing financial claims can make it harder to defend further commitments. A succession of procurement controversies could erode confidence not only in individual contracts, but in the wider case for supporting Ukraine and strengthening European defence.That is a strategic risk, not proof of an accomplished Russian victory. The public identification of problems is itself evidence that scrutiny exists. A minister accepting political responsibility, auditors challenging unreliable balances and a government being pressed to explain its borrowing are mechanisms through which democratic systems can correct failure. Their value depends on what happens afterwards.The answer is neither to abandon rearmament nor to shield it from criticism. Governments should report progress in terms that connect money to results: contracts awarded, payments made, equipment accepted and capabilities available, with sensitive details reserved for secure oversight. Disputed transactions should remain visible until resolved rather than disappearing beneath the next spending announcement.Europe does not need to prove its determination by producing another larger number. It needs to demonstrate that the money already committed is becoming usable strength. Until it does, the distance between those two things remains an opportunity for the adversary it is trying to deter.